Washington, DC – In a notable development, US mortgage rates have experienced a sharp increase, reaching their highest point in over two decades.
The Surge in Mortgage Rates
According to recent data released by Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 7.09% during the week ending August 17. This marked a rise from the previous week’s rate of 6.96%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate stood at a more modest 5.13%.
Persistent Upward Trend
These heightened rates have been a consistent trend since late May, intensifying further since mid-July. Notably, the last time rates exceeded 7% was in November of the previous year when they reached 7.08%. The current average rate of 7.09% represents the highest point for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage since April 2002, at which time it stood at 7.13%.
Impact on Housing Market
The surge in mortgage rates has led to a series of challenges for the housing market. This increase is a direct outcome of the Federal Reserve’s ongoing campaign of raising interest rates. Consequently, home affordability has plummeted to its lowest levels in decades. Prospective homebuyers are facing the challenge of increased costs associated with mortgage financing. Furthermore, homeowners who secured lower rates in the past are now hesitant to sell due to the financial implications. This dual impact of reduced inventory and elevated costs has resulted in home sales dropping by approximately 20% compared to the previous year.
Factors Behind the Rise
Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, attributed the rising rates to a combination of factors. The economy’s performance has exceeded expectations, and the 10-year Treasury yield has risen, subsequently influencing the climb in mortgage rates. While there are concerns about affordability hindrances affecting demand, the primary issue remains the limited housing inventory, which is stifling home sales growth.
Inflationary Concerns Persist
In parallel to the rising mortgage rates, there are ongoing concerns about inflation. The increasing average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan is reflecting the trajectory of 10-year Treasury yields, which recently reached their highest point since the summer of 2007.
George Ratiu, Chief Economist at Keeping Current Matters, a real estate market insights and content company, explained that the surge in Treasury yields is a response to the Federal Reserve’s release of meeting minutes. These minutes expressed apprehensions among members that inflation might persist at elevated levels for a longer duration than anticipated. Ratiu noted that despite the economy’s expansion and positive indicators like robust consumer spending and business investment, the Fed remains vigilant about controlling inflation.
Balancing Growth and Inflation
While the solid wage gains contribute positively to economic growth, the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance to manage inflation. The central bank aims to achieve a 2.0% target for price growth, influenced by past experiences of inflation peaks. With core inflation measures still exceeding 4.0%, the Fed’s agenda includes potential additional rate hikes to control inflation.
Although the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage interest rates, its actions significantly influence them. Mortgage rates are intrinsically linked to the yield on 10-year US Treasuries, which fluctuate based on a combination of expectations, actual Fed decisions, and investor reactions. When Treasury yields increase, mortgage rates follow suit.
Economic Resilience and Potential Impact
Jiayi Xu, an economist at Realtor.com, highlighted the encouraging data from July’s retail sales, indicating robust consumer spending despite high prices and elevated interest rates. However, this strong economic performance might lead to concerns about prolonged elevated interest rates, which could potentially affect the market in the long term.
