Shares of major Indian steel companies rallied on March 19 after the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) proposed a 12% provisional safeguard duty ad valorem for 200 days on select steel products. The recommendation came in response to a sharp spike in steel imports into India, which could significantly impact domestic producers.
The news sparked a surge in steel stocks, pushing the Nifty Metal index up over 1.5% in early trading. SAIL was the top gainer, jumping nearly 4% to open at ₹114 per share. Tata Steel climbed 2% to ₹157 apiece, marking a strong recovery from its 52-week low of ₹123 in January. JSW Steel gained over 1%, trading at ₹1,030 per share, while Jindal Stainless Steel rose nearly 2% to ₹664 apiece.
Other metal stocks recording gains included:
Welspun Corp (+2%)
APL Apollo Tubes (+2%)
Jindal Steel & Power (+1%)
NMDC (+1%)
Adani Enterprises (+1%)
Steel Products Covered Under the Safeguard Duty:
The DGTR has recommended the 12% duty ad valorem for 200 days on the following steel products:
Hot-rolled coils, sheets, and plates
HR Plate Mill Plates
Cold Rolled coils and sheets
Metallic coated steel coils and sheets (profiled or not)
Color-coated coils and sheets (profiled or not)
The recommendation now awaits ratification by the Finance Ministry to take effect.
Industry Impact and Reactions:
The proposed safeguard duty comes amid growing concerns over cheap Chinese imports flooding the Indian market. Indian steelmakers, including Tata Steel and JSW Steel, have long advocated for protective measures to shield domestic players from unfair competition.
The Indian Steel Association (ISA), representing top steelmakers, has been lobbying for safeguard duties since December, anticipating that higher U.S. tariffs could lead to increased steel imports into India.
Industry sources reveal that while smaller players have warned that a higher safeguard duty could raise input costs, larger steelmakers are pushing for a steeper 25% tariff.
Brokerage Views and Projections:
Following the DGTR’s recommendation, several brokerages issued bullish calls on steel stocks.
Nuvama estimates that a ₹1,000/ton increase in flat steel prices would boost FY26 EBITDA projections by:
7-8% for SAIL and JSW Steel
5% for Tata Steel
4% for Jindal Steel & Power
Morgan Stanley projects that if a 10-15% safeguard duty is implemented, it could impact EBITDA by:
20-40% for SAIL
15-28% for JSW Steel
12-22% for Tata Steel
6-15% for Jindal Steel & Power
