India’s leading private sector bank, HDFC Bank, is scheduled to unveil its fourth-quarter results for FY26 on April 18, 2025. Ahead of the announcement, the bank released its quarterly business update, offering a glimpse into its operational performance.
Business Performance at a Glance
The lender posted a robust 12% year-on-year expansion in gross advances, reaching ₹29.60 lakh crore during Q4FY26. On the liabilities side, total deposits climbed 14.4% YoY to ₹31.05 lakh crore, reflecting continued traction in deposit mobilization. CASA deposits — a key measure of low-cost funding — rose 12.3% YoY to ₹10.6 lakh crore for the quarter.
Earnings Estimates
Analysts broadly anticipate single-digit growth across the bank’s key income metrics. Net profit is projected to land between ₹18,950 crore and ₹19,110 crore, translating to YoY growth of approximately 7.5%–8.4%. On a sequential basis, the bottom line improvement is expected to be more modest, in the 1%–2% range. For reference, HDFC Bank had posted a standalone net profit of ₹17,616 crore in Q4FY25 and ₹18,654 crore in Q3FY26.
Net Interest Income (NII) is forecast in the ₹33,600–₹33,720 crore band, marking a YoY rise of 4%–5.7%, though it is expected to hold roughly flat compared to the prior quarter’s ₹32,615 crore. The year-ago NII stood at ₹32,070 crore.
What Investors Will Watch
Beyond the headline numbers, market participants will closely track management commentary on the credit growth trajectory, deposit strategy, and the near-term margin outlook. Key performance indicators—particularly net interest margin (NIM), gross NPA, and net NPA ratios—will be scrutinized for any signs of asset quality stress.
Additionally, investors are keeping a close eye on the effect of rising bond yields and the Reserve Bank of India’s imposition of a $100-million cap on open rupee positions in the foreign exchange market, both of which could weigh on the bank’s treasury earnings. The final dividend announcement for the full fiscal year is another major event investors are awaiting.
Stock and Technical Picture
HDFC Bank shares were trading around 0.5% higher at ₹799 on the NSE ahead of the result date, though the stock remains under pressure—down roughly 20% since January 2026.
From a technical standpoint, the stock continues to trade beneath its 20, 50, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), keeping the broader trend bearish. A short-term rebound has emerged from the ₹725 support zone, but the stock now faces meaningful resistance in the ₹810–₹820 range. A sustained close above ₹820 could open the path toward the ₹840–₹850 zone, where the 50 EMA sits. On the downside, a failure to hold ₹780–₹790 may see the stock revisit ₹725; a break below that level could reignite the primary downtrend.
Options Market View
Based on the at-the-money 795 strike and prevailing implied volatility, the options market is pricing in a move of approximately ±4.9% for the April 28 expiry — a moderately wide band for an earnings event. Traders with a directional or volatility view may consider straddle strategies:
A long straddle (buying both an ATM call and put at the same strike and expiry) profits if the actual price move exceeds ±4.9% in either direction. A short straddle (selling both legs) benefits if the stock remains range-bound within that implied move and volatility subsides post-results.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
